How long can the reappearance of the rift within the EU last?
After the US election, the European Political Community Summit and the informal meeting of EU leaders were held in Budapest, Hungary, last weekend. Supporting the Ukrainian issue has become the common focus of the two meetings.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, the escalating strategy of "opposing Ukraine and controlling Russia" has brought serious anti-itself effect to Europe, and it has also made countries more and more unable to do so. Few people can clearly answer how long this model will last.
Reality shows that on this issue, deep cracks have once again been exposed within the EU.
"We should adapt to the new situation."
On the 8th, during the informal meeting of EU leaders, European Council President Michelle still stressed that the EU must support Ukraine, "otherwise, it will release the wrong political signal".
However, Hungarian Prime Minister Orban, the host of the meeting, called on the EU to adjust its existing policies according to the actual situation.
"Even if the defeat is fixed, there are still some people who want the conflict to continue and want to continue to provide a lot of money. But at the same time, some people who once shouted for the conflict are becoming silent. Others cautiously said that we should adapt to the new situation, and these two kinds of people are becoming more and more. "
Orban particularly reminded that if US President-elect Trump terminates his aid to Ukraine in the new term, Europe will not be able to provide Ukraine with the financial support needed for the war alone.
△ Screenshot of US Consumer News and Business Channel website report
Orban had been regarded as an "disobedient rebel" by many western countries because he often "played the devil’s advocate" on different occasions. But in fact, for a long time, there have been differences within the EU on whether to continue to support Ukraine.
Slovak Prime Minister Fizzo criticized that the European Council has become a "military cabinet" and only cares about "sending more bullets to Ukraine".
"Let’s stop supporting Ukraine militarily, and let’s go back to the negotiating table to discuss the peace plan, although it is extremely complicated and difficult. Military confrontation is meaningless. Sanctions have brought more problems to the EU than to Russia. "
△ Ukrainian "Kiev Post" report screenshot
What makes these countries angry and helpless?
As Orban mentioned, the attitude of some EU countries towards aiding Ukraine is slowly changing.
Since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Poland has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest supporters. However, with the incidents of Ukrainian agricultural products impacting the Polish market and Polish truck drivers blocking the border, the public opinion base of Poland’s aid to Ukraine gradually faded. From the perspective of finance and its own security, the Polish government is also gradually adjusting its policy toward Ukraine.
Coupled with Ukraine’s accusation of Poland’s so-called "stinginess and failure to keep promises", the contradiction between the two countries began to stand out.
Polish Defense Minister Caussignac-cames said in an interview a few days ago that since the outbreak of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, Poland has done its best to provide military support to Ukraine, but Poland does not want to be directly involved in the conflict.
"Poland has handed over as much military equipment as possible, but Poland’s own security needs have set clear limits. For example, MiG -29 fighters are used to protect Polish airspace, and I can’t agree to provide these fighters (to Ukraine)."
△ "Ukrainian Pravda" report screenshot
There are also countries that are full of helplessness on the issue of aiding Ukraine.
Taking Germany as an example, under the strategic entanglement of the United States and NATO, Germany has gradually become the second largest aid provider in Ukraine after the United States.
The Scholz government will provide about 8 billion euros in aid to Ukraine this year. However, financial constraints have made Germany’s aid to Ukraine weaker and weaker.
Affected by the anti-bite effect, Germany’s prices have continued to rise in the past two years, industrial production has declined, and the economy is on the verge of recession, so that German politics has recently fallen into a serious shock.
△ "Deutsche Welle" website article analyzes whether the German ruling Coalition can continue its foreign policy of supporting Ukraine after the collapse due to budget problems.
"Europe needs to wake up quickly"
The difficulties and entanglements of Poland and Germany are also the epitome of Europe as a whole.
With the prolongation of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, Europe has not only become the biggest loser of this crisis at home, but also has to cope with the dual challenges of increasing military spending and long-term assistance to Ukraine while the economy is in a downturn.
The bigger dilemma facing Europe is the gradual withdrawal of the United States. US President-elect Trump had previously unabashedly accused Europe of "hitchhiking in the United States" on security issues, and repeatedly expressed his opposition to continuing to aid Ukraine. This makes Europe realize that it is imperative to greatly reduce its dependence on US security.
△ Maria Matthews, an analyst at the European Policy Center, said that relying heavily on the United States in its security strategy has made Europe face increasing uncertainty. "I think it is very important for the EU to have its own foundation of autonomy".
Cui Hongjian, a professor at the Institute of Advanced Studies in Regional and Global Governance of Beijing Foreign Studies University, believes that Europe should make more "pragmatic" considerations for its own interests in dealing with the conflict between Russia and Ukraine.
"Trump said that he has the ability to quickly resolve the Ukrainian crisis. One of his proposals is to reach a consensus through direct communication with Russia. There are still some countries in Europe that firmly support Ukraine and oppose Russia. Once a compromise is reached between the United States and Russia, for Europe, the US security commitment to Europe may become empty talk. "
The British "Economist" magazine recently warned that "Europe needs to wake up quickly and find ways to take care of itself".
The article said that Trump’s return to the White House means that the good days of Europeans are over. Especially in terms of security, Europe should understand that it can no longer rely on the protection of the United States.
△ British "Economist" magazine article screenshot (the picture shows French President Macron and German Chancellor Scholz)
Source: Global Information Broadcasting "Global Deep Observation"
Reporter Shan Lijuan
Editor Yang Nan
Signing and examining Wang Jian
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